Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.016450 0.018653 0.021049 0.023847 0.027028 0.030534 0.034694
2025-05-04 0.013222 0.016301 0.019942 0.024571 0.030309 0.037200 0.046122
2025-05-11 0.011083 0.014455 0.018677 0.024362 0.031834 0.041349 0.054430
2025-05-18 0.009665 0.013201 0.017837 0.024380 0.033407 0.045470 0.062894
2025-05-25 0.008457 0.012017 0.016877 0.024019 0.034294 0.048612 0.070205
2025-06-01 0.007713 0.011356 0.016512 0.024372 0.036114 0.053109 0.079758
2025-06-08 0.006951 0.010569 0.015858 0.024194 0.037082 0.056389 0.087762
2025-06-15 0.006530 0.010232 0.015812 0.024883 0.039369 0.061782 0.099447
2025-06-22 0.005810 0.009357 0.014853 0.024046 0.039163 0.063258 0.105012
2025-06-29 0.005302 0.008763 0.014269 0.023728 0.039725 0.065951 0.112750
2025-07-06 0.004760 0.008059 0.013439 0.022917 0.039373 0.067073 0.117883
2025-07-13 0.004571 0.007927 0.013532 0.023658 0.041697 0.072871 0.131637
2025-07-20 0.004355 0.007734 0.013517 0.024227 0.043811 0.078555 0.145877
2025-07-27 0.004177 0.007594 0.013581 0.024943 0.046254 0.085053 0.162290
2025-08-03 0.003877 0.007202 0.013161 0.024731 0.046959 0.088417 0.173075
2025-08-10 0.003638 0.006904 0.012881 0.024749 0.048084 0.092646 0.185920
2025-08-17 0.003372 0.006528 0.012425 0.024383 0.048422 0.095375 0.196012
2025-08-24 0.003220 0.006360 0.012345 0.024741 0.050214 0.101096 0.212753
2025-08-31 0.003018 0.006073 0.012012 0.024561 0.050893 0.104627 0.225229
2025-09-07 0.002929 0.006008 0.012109 0.025261 0.053449 0.112216 0.247144
2025-09-14 0.002685 0.005603 0.011488 0.024410 0.052646 0.112685 0.253433
2025-09-21 0.002514 0.005337 0.011131 0.024087 0.052945 0.115519 0.265282
2025-09-28 0.002310 0.004984 0.010566 0.023264 0.052069 0.115702 0.271041